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看看墨西哥湾产量你就知道 飓风帮了原油市场一个大忙

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随着热带风暴“哈维”逐步升级为三级至四级飓风,这有可能将成为十多年来首个侵袭美国海岸的三级飓风。

随着交易者对飓风“哈维”给原油生产带来的潜在影响进行重新评估,本周五的原油价格也开始上涨。目前,这一规模巨大的风暴正在墨西哥湾逐步加强,并最终会在美国德克萨斯州境内的海岸线登陆。

8月25日(本周五),10月份交割的西德克萨斯原油期货价格上涨0.76%,至47.79美元每桶,一举扭转了本周四价格下跌的趋势。尽管此前已经有气象学家警告称,此次风暴将会给美国沿海地区带来重大损毁,但周四的原油价格依然出现下跌。现在,作为国际原油市场基准价格的布伦特原油期货价格也开始出现上涨,其中10月份交割的原油期货价格已经上涨0.81%,至52.46美元每桶。

据了解,来自墨西哥湾的原油产量占美国国内原油总产量的17%左右。这些原油生产企业分布在从德克萨斯州的科珀斯克里斯蒂到路易斯安那州的查尔斯湖之间的海岸线上。另外,在这一地区分布着美国国内近三分之一的炼油和天然气加工产能。

预期飓风“哈维”将会在本周五晚些时候,或本周六开始在科珀斯克里斯蒂登陆。本周五,美国国家飓风中心已经将“哈维”的级别升级为二级飓风。但这场风暴依然在不断加强,而且很会可能成为自2005年10月份飓风“威尔玛”发生以来,第一个登陆美国境内的三级飓风。

美国国家飓风中心发出警告称:“预计‘哈维’将会给当地带来暴雨和危险的风暴潮。从本周五开始,当地可能会出现危及生命的洪水。”国家飓风中心还表示,沿海地区可能会有高达35英寸(约900毫米)的降雨,风速会高达每小时125英里(约200公里),风暴潮可能会使海平面上升12英尺(约3.7米)。

直到本周五,飓风威胁一直对原油价格保持打压态势。交易者们一直认为,这场风暴可能会导致原油积压——因为即使炼油厂关闭,但海上原油钻井平台仍然会继续运行。不过,从目前的风暴轨迹来看,其有可能会经过这一主要产油区的南部地带,而该地区正好处于墨西哥湾的北部。

在过去24小时中,随着海上原油钻井平台停产报道的陆续出现,这种预期开始发生了动摇。截止到本周四中午,随着墨西哥湾原油钻井平台的陆续停产,该地区的海上原油产量下降了10%,而天然气产量也下降了15%。与此同时,位于德克萨斯州南部盆地鹰堡的部分页岩油田也暂时停止了生产。

在飓风“哈维”袭击当地期间,估计每天会有100万桶左右的沿海炼油产能将被迫关闭。另外,可能会有400万桶的炼油产能受到影响。

据了解,受影响的原油生产商包括荷兰皇家壳牌石油公司、阿纳达科石油公司(APC)和埃克森美孚石油公司。这些公司都表示,作为预防性安全措施,他们已将部分离岸钻井平台的工人撤离到了安全区域。

(该文由凤凰iMarkets编译自TheSteet网站/双刀)

Oil prices rebounded early Friday as Hurricane Harvey surged toward the east coast of Texas, threatening Gulf of Mexico refineries and crude oil production platforms. Still, oil prices may not find as much support as some traders are hoping. 


West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 17 cents to $47.60 a barrel shortly after noon ET Friday, while global benchmark Brent crude futures slipped into the red slightly at $52.03 a barrel. WTI and Brent contracts ended Thursday's trading session down 2% and 1%, respectively, on concerns that shut-in refineries would lead to a surplus in fuel inventories in the Gulf Coast following Friday's storm.


Natural gas on the New York Mercantile exchange also traded down roughly 2% Friday afternoon at $2.89 per million British thermal units. 




With production shut in by the regions largest producers, including Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) , Royal Dutch Shell PLC  (RDS.A) and Anadarko Petroleum Corp. (APC) , it's possible West Texas Intermediate crude contracts could test $50 a barrel, Seaport Global Securities LLC analysts admitted Friday. 


But the firm noted that this storm is set to hit the refinery hub of the U.S., meaning that fall refined products will build up as refineries shut down runs, and thus the risk premium evaporates.


And as Seaport's macro strategist Richard Hastings noted Thursday, "storms like Harvey tend to weaken demand for gasoline, as traveling in the wreckage wrought by such catastrophes can be difficult, and storms usually reduce demand for electricity due to downed power lines and outages."


Currently, there is 871,000 barrels per day of refinery output that has been shut down to the storm, according to Seaport, while another 4 million barrels of capacity stands to be shut in as well. According to EIA, the coastline between Corpus Christi, Texas and Lake Charles in Louisiana is home to about a third of the national oil and gas refining capacity.


#Hurricane #Harvey headed for area with significant #oil, #naturalgas infrastructure https://t.co/hlNpyralV0 #natgas #energy #GulfofMexico pic.twitter.com/1w0qRLDTGF


— EIA (@EIAgov) August 25, 2017

Harvey, which is expected to make landfall near Corpus Christi late Friday or early Saturday, was upgraded to a Category 2 hurricane on Friday by the U.S. National Hurricane Center. The storm remains on track for a further upgrade and could be the first Category 3 hurricane to make landfall in the U.S. since hurricane Wilma hit Florida in October 2005.


Until Friday, the hurricane's threat had served to push down oil prices, with traders taking the view that the storm could result in an oil backlog as refineries closed while offshore rigs continued operations. The path of the storm is likely to take it south of the major oil producing regions in the Gulf's northern sector.


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That expectation wavered over the past 24 hours as reports of offshore production closures began to filter in. By midday on Thursday, closures of rigs in the Gulf of Mexico had resulted in about 10% decline in the region's offshore production capacity and a 15% fall in natural gas production capacity. Some fracking in the Eagleford onshore basin had also been suspended.


Still, some industry followers don't expect the impacts to Gulf of Mexico production to be that significant given that a majority of the region's production is located of the coast of Louisiana, out of the hurricane's expected path. 


"However, the storm will certainly impact some production (current reports suggest only 10% of GOM production shut-in) and disrupt refinery runs, imports and exports...which will show up in the weekly inventory numbers for the next few weeks," Tudor, Pickering Holt & Co. analysts wrote Friday. "Onshore production is less likely to be impacted other than deferral of completions in the Eagle Ford if the rainfall/flooding predictions come to pass."


Tudor also believes that Hurricane Harvey's refining implications will be less impressive than much of the industry is anticipated. 


"As it stands today, Harvey appears headed towards Corpus Christi which is home to three refineries but also the least amount of refining capacity among the major Gulf Coast refining centers," the firm explained. "We thus believe that the refining-related impacts may be minimized as well as can be expected for a major hurricane squarely hitting one of the Texas coastal refining centers."


On the other hand, TPH expects crack spreads to strengthen in the Mid-Continent, Midwest and East Coast regions given the likely slowing supply deliveries on the trunkline product pipes that serve those regions from the Gulf Coast. 


Given this movement in crack spreads, which are the differential between the price of crude oil and petroleum products extracted from it, the energy-focused research firm suspects a near-term long trading opportunity for the likes of CVR Refining LP (CVRR) , Delek US Holdings Inc. (DK) and HollyFrontier Corp. (HFC) in the Mid-Con; Marathon Petroleum Corp. (MPC) and PBF Energy Inc. (PBF) in the Midwest; and PBF Energy and Valero Energy Corp. (VLO) on the East Coast, as even a few weeks of possible margin upside is constructive for third quarter earnings.   


--Paul Whitfield contributed to this report

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