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Gibson:许多船东对洗涤塔安装是推迟不是取消

新冠肺炎疫情蔓延给航运市场造成了严重影响,脱硫洗涤塔设备安装活动陷入停滞,同时,石油价格剧烈波动,安装洗涤塔似乎成了一种高风险的投资赌注。但是,Gibson说:许多船东对洗涤塔安装是推迟不是取消。

正筹备第四届2020国际船用洗涤塔和压载水上海峰会将于2020年8月26-27日在上海市举办的国际船舶海工网了解到。

船舶经纪公司Gibson在其最新周报中指出:“最近几周,多家上市油轮公司宣布了推迟洗涤器安装的决定。DHT Holdings在发布第一季度财务业绩时,以强劲的市场条件为由推迟了五台洗涤塔设备的安装期限。International Seaways也发布了类似的声明。据普氏能源资讯(Platts)称,该公司已将原定的三项安装洗涤塔计划延后至2021年的干船坞时段。Scorpio Tankers油轮公司也表示将把19艘船舶的洗涤塔改装项目至少推迟到2021年进行,Scorpio Bulkers则宣布决定推迟十三台洗涤器设备的安装。在上述情况发生之前,已有几家独立船东取消了原计划在去年第四季度安装的洗涤塔订单,这些船东放弃了洗涤塔,选择把握当时强劲的油轮市场优势。”

高、低硫油价差走势

图源/Gibson

Gibson表示:“最近的公开声明中都没有提到燃油价格的大幅下跌以及超低硫燃料油(VLSFO)和高硫燃料油(HSFO)价差的收窄。在新冠疫情的驱动下,石油需求出现暴跌,受这种因素的影响,今年3月和4月两种船用燃油之间的价差已跌至50~60美元/吨,而在今年1月这种价差曾经高达275~300美元/吨。这样一来,配备洗涤塔的船舶的收益溢价也出现了大幅下降。以TD3C航线为参考,配备了洗涤塔的VLCC在4月份的平均日收益相比没有安装洗涤塔的油轮仅仅高出了4000美元/天。相比之下,几个月前两种船舶的收益差价则是16000美元/天。”

据该船舶经济公司称:“有这么多不利的市场条件,船东对洗涤塔安装订单的兴趣大大降低也就不足为奇了。近期瓦锡兰宣布新的船舶业务订单出现了下滑,这在很大程度上是因为缺乏洗涤塔投资。某航运机构也证实了类似的趋势,该机构也报告称在今年的前三个月中洗涤塔订单有所减少。洗涤塔改装经济肯定受到了高低硫油价差持续收窄的影响。在这两种燃油之间的差价为60美元/吨的情况下,给一艘VLCC改装开环式洗涤塔的投资回本时间预计为3至4年,具体时长视每艘油轮的燃油效率而定。如果是为新船安装洗涤塔,其投资回本时间则会短一些,因为新船的安装成本较低,而且没有停租时间。不过,即便如此,还是需要18到26个月的时间才能回收成本。”

“但是,将来的情况还可能再次发生转变。一旦世界从新冠疫情中恢复过来,油价就有望出现反弹,而OPEC+也可能会继续采取措施巩固油价。再往下分析,目前我们看到石油公司的资本支出大幅减少,这可能会强化对石油价格的上行压力。考虑到这一点,市场上对废气清洁技术的投资可能会重新提上议程。目前油轮船东们的首选策略倾向于推迟洗涤塔安装而不是彻底取消订单,对未来几年石油价格升高的预期也许就是这样做的其中一个原因”,Gibson总结道。

The Future of Scrubbers

in Hellenic Shipping News 18/05/2020

Scrubber installations have taken a pause, as the effect of the pandemic on oil prices has wreaked havoc in the the market, rendering such a decision, a high risk investment bet, at least for now. In its latest weekly report, shipbroker Gibson said that “in recent weeks, several publicly listed tanker companies announced their decisions to postpone scrubber installations. During the release of their 1st quarter financial results, DHT Holdings said it would postpone installation of five scrubbers, citing strong market conditions as the reason. A similar statement was made by International Seaways. According to Platts, the company has postponed three planned installations to coincide with scheduled dry docking in 2021. Finally, Scorpio Tankers said it will delay the installation of nineteen scrubber retrofits until at least 2021, while Scorpio Bulkers announced its decision to delay the installation of thirteen scrubbers. These developments follow several scrubber cancellations (by independent owners) scheduled to take place in the 4th quarter of last year, with owners instead opting to take advantage of the strong tanker market at the time”.

Source: Gibson

“However, there has been no mention of a dramatic decline in bunker prices and lower spreads between very low sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) and high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) in recent public statements. The Covid-19 driven collapse in oil demand saw the differential between the two bunker fuels fall as low as $50-$60/tonne in March and April, compared to around $275-$300/tonne spread back in January 2020. As a result, the premium in spot earnings for scrubber equipped vessels declined substantially. Using TD3C as a guide, scrubber equipped VLCCs on average earned just $4,000/day more in April than tankers without scrubbers. This is compared to a premium of $16,000/day just a few months ago”, Gibson said.

According to the shipbroker, “due to these adverse market conditions, it is not surprising that there has been considerably less appetite for new scrubber installations. Wartsila announced a decline in new marine orders, largely due to a lack of scrubber investments. A similar trend has been confirmed by the classification society DNV GL, which also reported a slowdown in scrubber orders during the 1st three months of the year. The economics of a scrubber retrofit have certainly been impacted by narrower spreads. At a $60/tonne differential between the two bunker fuels, the repayment period of an investment in an open loop VLCC scrubber retrofit is expected to be somewhere between 3 to 4 years, depending on a fuel efficiency of a tanker. The repayment period is shorter if the technology is installed on a newbuild due to lower installation costs and no offhire time. However, even here it would still take somewhere between 18 to 26 months to repay the investment”, Gibson noted.

“Yet, the picture could change again in the future. Oil prices are expected to rebound once the world recovers from Covid-19, whilst OPEC+ is likely to continue its efforts to support oil prices. Further down the line, the upward pressure on oil prices could also intensify due to the major reductions in CAPEX by oil companies seen at present. With this in mind, investment in exhaust gas cleaning technology could come back on the agenda. Expectation of higher prices in years to come is perhaps one of the reasons why delays to scrubber installations and not outright cancellations are currently the preferred strategy of tanker owners”, the shipbroker concluded.

Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide

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