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美国福布斯发表欧洲Nordea财团认为疫情改变不了中国继续为全球市场驱动力

尽管新型的冠状病毒是中国当前防范和控制的疫情,但中国仍有很多积极事情正在进行,今后还将继续作为全球市场驱动力。美国福布斯发表欧洲Nordea财团认为疫情改变不了中国继续作为全球市场驱动力。


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第一阶段贸易协议仅是其中之一。撇开外部因素,这是使中国成为未来数年不可忽视的经济实力的要素,Nordea资产管理公司是欧洲北欧国家最大的财富管理公司之一,拥有超过900万客户和2,240亿美元的资产管理。

Nordea特别概述了随着2020年的到来,中国投资者认为中短期内积极的五件事。

1.货币宽松政策,尤其是降低银行的法定存款准备金率,已经“完成了工作”,并将在未来12至24个月内为中国提供帮助。中国的货币机制实际上是不同的,因为可以将数量重定向到中央政府所希望的位置(包括进入股票市场)。中国最大的公司与政府政策银行有着直接的联系,这意味着经济可以比西方国家更快地从刺激政策中受益。

2.随着猪肉健康危机的消退,通货膨胀应开始减弱。有关消费的直接和间接证据表明,它在中高层消费群体中保持良好的势头。MSCI Consumer Discretionary的表现表明,自10月份以来,它已经逐渐反弹,直到上个月,当冠状病毒成为头条新闻时,该指数才出现下降。

3,第一阶段协议意味着目前降低关税,并降低自特朗普总统当选以来困扰中国的极端不确定性。诺地亚(Nordea)意识到某些损害是永久的。美国跨国公司已经开始依赖中国,而且随着制造业逐渐离开中国,这种情况正在改变。这样做的结果是削减了一些成本,这很可能导致消费者通胀。

4,政府表示将提高财政政策的有效性,并且有一些未来扩张的建议。

5.最后,去杠杆化的努力不应被低估,随着两种经济冲击逐渐消失(贸易战的不确定性和冠状病毒的爆发),中国的新闻头条将得到改善,信贷故事-对中国而言永远是空头案例-应该有所迹象。 Nordea分析师认为,这种改进的方式。

从长远来看,中国不会面临失去作为全球第二大经济体的欧盟的威胁。上海已经超过香港,成为世界上最大的金融市场之一,并有望超过东京。上海的证券交易所已经比伦敦的更大。上海或深圳的交易所吸引迪士尼这样的跨国公司到那里上市只是时间问题。

长期以来,中国证明了自己的实力,因为它是耐克,苹果和好莱坞等大品牌的新“ Peoria”。俗话说,迪斯尼电影和漫威环球不仅在伊利诺伊州皮奥里亚表现出色,而且在广州也必须表现出色。情况并没有改变,除非华盛顿发出命令,要求公司放弃与中国的业务。

此外,除非华盛顿也禁止像MSCI这样的主要指数在其基准中包括越来越多的中国证券,否则,更多的美国资本将流入中国公司-无论是从纽约的精明债券交易员那里寻求快钱,还是从学校教师退休金计划进行全球投资。他们都将持有越来越多的中国股票和债券。

中国债券破产了吗?

中国创纪录的违约数量开始让投资者担忧。尽管这主要是空头们喜欢吹捧作为避开中国的理由。尽管该国债券市场在全球范围内不断扩大,但尽管私有和国有的中国公司现在已将其风险转移给外国贷方,但多头仍在购买。

Nordea分析师在上周晚些时候发布的一份报告中写道,中国最近的一系列政策决定“最终将导致2020年下半年经济活动显着反弹”。

尽管北京也更愿意让它们倒闭,但它们对陷入困境的公司可能是有益的。

中国自身的数量不断增长的企业家越来越拥护西方式的自由市场,而中国共产党则有数十亿人担心,并花了多年的时间扼杀竞争以允许当地市场成长和雇用人。重点一直放在出口制造上。情况正在改变。中国正在经历经济的结构性转变,同时努力避免可怕的中等收入陷阱。中国仍然有许多省份正在努力解决人们习惯于在巴西等地出现的贫困问题。

同时,无论是在政府层面还是在私营部门,信贷问题都是中国愿意指出的问题。

中国公司比以往任何时候都更有能力向世界其他国家欠钱。一个越来越渴望中国债券的世界。

在更坏的情况下,大型中国公司的破产可能会在整个投资领域发出冲击波,打击那些对中国债务无所适从的大型西方银行,而不会被人民银行抛弃。中国银行。

如果新颖的冠状病毒首先在武汉市发现,并且据信已从蝙蝠或蛇传播给人类(更不用说恶化的贸易战局势),将发出冲击波,那么所有的短期和中期积极性都可以消除。通过经济。

巴克莱资本已经预测,由于该病毒在流行的农历新年假期中流行,第一季度国内生产总值将下降0.2个百分点。

经济学人智库预测,如果中国正在应对类似SARS的疫情,该疫情将感染约8,000人,造成700多人死亡,那么全球GDP将下降1个百分点。

来自Nordea的文章:贸易战的冲击正在恢复,如果我们有一个猜测,中国的金融业将是核心欧洲,半核心和已解散的外围国家的混合体。虽然有些零碎,但它们的破碎程度远不如以往,在定向经济中,它的重要性远不如欧洲。

如果它们是正确的,市场将让中国的垃圾债券破产,像其他任何地方一样陷入困境。同时,如果那里持续的健康危机一切顺利,并且如果特朗普在今年晚些时候不加征关税,这对他而言并非完全不可行,那么中国应该在2020年取得好成绩。更多的公司将中国视为市场驱动力。

资料来源:《福布斯》


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Five Positive Things Happening In China’s Economy

Despite the novel coronavirus sweeping through China at break-neck speeds, the country has numerous things going for it. The phase one trade deal is barely one of them.

External factors aside, here is what will keep China an economic power impossible to ignore for years to come, according to Nordea Asset Management, one of the biggest wealth management firms in the Nordic countries of Europe, with over 9 million clients and $224 billion in assets under management.

In particular, Nordea outlines five things China investors consider positives in the short-to-medium term as 2020 gets underway.

1.Monetary easing, particularly the reductions in the Required Reserve Ratio for banks, has “done the job” and should help China over the next 12 to 24 months. The monetary mechanisms are actually different in China as quantity can be redirected where the central government desires (including into the stock market). China’s largest companies have a direct line to the government policy banks, which means that the economy can benefit from that stimulus faster than in Western countries.

2.Inflation should start to fade as the pork health crisis fades away. Direct and indirect evidence on consumption suggests that it is holding well in the mid to higher tier segments. The performance of the MSCI Consumer Discretionary shows a gradual rebounding since October before it fell last month once the coronavirus made headlines.

3.The phase one deal means lower tariffs for now and lowers the extreme degree of uncertainty that was plaguing China since President Trump’s election. Nordea recognizes that some of the damage is permanent. U.S. multinationals have become dependent on China, and that is now changing as manufacturing slowly leaves China. The consequence of this has been some cost cutting and this is likely to feed into consumer inflation.

4.The government said it would improve the effectiveness of fiscal policy and there are some suggestions of some expansion ahead.

5.Finally, the effort of deleveraging should not be under-estimated and as the two economic shocks fade away — trade war uncertainty and the coronavirus outbreak — China headlines will improve and the credit story, always a bear case for China, should see signs of improvement, Nordea analysts believe.

Longer term, China faces no threats of losing its spot to the European Union as the world’s No. 2 global economy. Shanghai has surpassed Hong Kong as one of the largest financial markets in the world and is expected to overtake Tokyo. Shanghai’s stock exchange is already bigger than London’s. It is only a matter of time before the Shanghai or Shenzhen exchanges attract the likes of multinationals like Disney to list their shares there.

China has long proved its cache as being the new “Peoria” for big brands like Nike and Apple, as well as Hollywood. Not only do Disney flicks and the Marvel Universal play well in Peoria, Illinois, as that old saying goes, they also have to play well in Guangzhou. That’s not changing, barring an order from Washington for companies to abandon business with China.

Moreover, unless Washington also bans major indexes like the MSCI from including an ever-increasing number of Chinese securities in their benchmarks, then more American capital will flow into Chinese corporations — whether from savvy bond traders in New York looking for fast money, or school teacher pension plans investing globally. They will all hold an increasingly large number of Chinese stocks and bonds.

China Bonds Go Bust?

China’s record number of defaults is starting to worry investors. Though this is mainly something the bears like to tout as the reason to avoid China. Bulls still buy, even as private and state-owned Chinese companies are now essentially offloading their risk to foreign lenders as this bond market expands globally.

The recent series of policy decisions in China will “eventually lead to a significant rebound in economic activity in the second half of 2020,” Nordea analysts wrote in a report published late last week.

They may be good for companies in trouble, though Beijing is also more willing to let them fail.

China’s economic model is under strain from its own growing number of entrepreneurs who are more in favor of a Western-style free market, and the Communist Party who has billions of people to worry about and have spent years stifling competition to allow for local markets to grow and hire people. The focus has been on manufacturing for export. That’s changing. China is undergoing a structural shift in its economy, while trying to avoid the dreaded middle income trap. There are still many provinces in China grappling with the kind of poverty people are accustomed to seeing in places like Brazil.

Meanwhile, the credit issue is one that China bears love to point out, both at the government level and in the private sector.

Chinese companies are more than ever in a position of owing money to the rest of the world; a world increasingly hungry for China bonds.

In a worse case scenario, a blow up of major China corporates could send shockwaves across the investing universe, hitting the big Western banks that go balls-to-the-wall on China debt and won’t get thrown a life boat from the People’s Bank of China.

All of the short and medium-term positives can be wiped out if the novel coronavirus, first found in the city of Wuhan and believed to have spread from bats or snakes to humans — not to mention a worsening trade war scenario — will send shock waves through the economy.

Barclays Capital is already forecasting a .2 percentage point reduction in first quarter GDP because of the virus, which hit during the popular Lunar New Year holiday.

The Economist Intelligence Unit is forecasting as much as a 1 percentage point decline in global GDP if China is dealing with a SARS-like outbreak that infected around 8,000 people, killing over 700 of them.

From Nordea: The trade war shock is reverting and if we had a guess, Chinese financials are a mix of what would be core Europe, semi-core and the defunct periphery. There are broken bits but they are far less broken than they used to be and in a directed economy it matters far less than it does in Europe.

If they are right, markets will let the junk bonds in China fail and take their lumps like they would anywhere else. In the mean time, if all goes well with the ongoing health crisis there, and if Trump does not impose more tariffs later this year, which is not entirely out of bounds for him, then China should do well in 2020. And beyond, as more corporations look to China as a market driver.

Source: Forbes

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