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美国原油巨轮为避新关税争分夺秒赶中国

中国将于9月1日起对进口美国原油实施增收5%关税,少数运载美国原油到中国的油轮正在争分夺秒9月1日的最后期限,但并非所有油轮都能按时完成。一艘321,075载重吨的Svet于7月7日从美国西南航道减少区航行,于周三抵达中国青岛港。这艘308,285载重吨的Landbridge Prosperity于6月30日从美国Offvest Galveston Lighterage地区航行,在Covenas停靠了额外货物,并计划于周四抵达日照港。

正筹备举办免费的“中欧豪华邮轮内饰内装对接交流会”将于9月13日在德国汉堡举办、收费的2019第6届邮轮客滚船轮渡上海国际峰会将发布3版不同2020中国造船地图2019第三届船用洗涤塔和压载水系统上海峰会”等活动的国际船舶海工网了解到。



这些海运货物强调了美中贸易冲突如何提高了上周关税公告措手不及的买家和交易商的风险,并且在他们还在海上时,他们想要寻找转售或转移货物的选择。

当中国买家在6月底贸易紧张局势缓解时增加购买美国商品的风险加剧,此后购买的货物已经开始上涨。

根据标准普尔全球普拉茨贸易流量软件cFlow的说法,两个VLCC - 利比里亚标记的Svet和香港旗下的Landbridge Prosperity - 计划在关税启动前到达中国港口。

这艘321,075载重吨的Svet于7月7日从美国西南航道减少区航行,于周三抵达中国青岛港。这艘308,285载重吨的Landbridge Prosperity于6月30日从美国Offvest Galveston Lighterage地区航行,在Covenas停靠了额外货物,并计划于周四抵达日照港。

船舶追踪数据显示,7月7日,英国国旗苏伊士型油轮能量凯旋装载于Offshore Galveston Lighterage,并计划于周四抵达舟山。驳船区域用于进行反向上升 - 将小型货物装载到较大的船上 - 因为大多数美国出口终端缺乏VLCC的大型泊位。

Landbridge Prosperity由P66特许为美国墨西哥湾沿岸 - 新加坡航行,可选择中国,分别为35.575亿美元和455.5万美元,而Energy Triumph则以340.25万美元包租美国墨西哥湾沿岸 - 宁波航行通过Mercuria,运输设备显示。

这些船将是更幸运的。由于大约55天的航行,过去几周前往中国的大部分美国原油出货量将不会在9月1日之前到达中国。此外,他们很难确定,因为他们的目的地尚未被披露以避免被发现。

加强

交易风险新加坡交易商表示,由于最后一刻的销售,快速货物必须大幅折扣,因此海运出货将难以转售,买家只需支付关税就可能更便宜。

由于中美紧张局势持续存在不确定性,交易商也使用固定装置的目的地选择,以防对中国的交付受到危害。这些船舶按照最终交付的双重费率包租,例如Landbridge Prosperity。

在中国关税宣布之前的8月23日当周,美国向亚洲的原油运输量为850万桶,几乎是本周美国海运原油出口总量1800万桶的一半,船舶追踪数据显示。

海关数据显示,中国7月份美国原油进口量为150万吨,即1120万桶,为一年中最高月度,因为之前购买的货物继续抵达中国港口。

由于交易商试图在9月1日关税截止日期之前加速交货,8月份成交量可能继续保持高位,但预计将再次崩溃。

一家贸易商表示,国有石油化工股份有限公司的贸易部门联合石化公司(Unipec)每个月都有一份定期合同,可以解除3-4份美国原油的VLCC,但关税公告也令人意外。

然而,交易商补充说,拥有定期合约的交易商和国际贸易商以FOB方式提升美国货物通常会通过各种机制(如替代交割方式)对冲风险。

美国原油在亚洲

美国原油出口量已经超过每周300万桶/日,并且到年底应超过去年的平均水平超过100万桶/日,并增加超过100万桶/日花旗集团(Citigroup)全球商品研究主管埃德•莫尔斯(Ed Morse)上周在给客户的一份报告中表示,明年。

他说,最近美国WTI米德兰原油在亚洲的报价高于迪拜,这证明了美国石油进入全球市场的程度,直接与该地区和中东的轻质原油竞争。

“美国原油通常是针对WTI的。这种开发在新加坡或马来西亚交付,使亚洲买家能够更容易地将美国石油与该地区其他类似的石油进行比较,“莫尔斯补充道。

他说,美国原油的吸引力正在通过炼油厂满足国际海事组织2020规范的需求得到加强,并补充说美国的供应增长“向全球市场开放的高速公路”挑战大西洋盆地的平衡并进入亚洲市场。

来源:普拉茨

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2019年12月3日-6日上海国际海事展会期间继续 上发布新版的中外上瘾的中国造船地图3个不同版本的地图格式如下:


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2)标准版中文中国造船地图。尺寸为840x570 mm,该版地图将在展览期间和展会后免费赠送,邮寄需要付工本价为180元人民币(邮寄6张图,包邮,有增值税发票)。

正面格式如下:



A handful of oil tankers carrying US crude to China are racing to beat the September 1 deadline when Beijing’s 5% tariff on US crude imports will kick in, but not all will cross the finishing line on time.

These seaborne cargoes underscore how the US-China trade conflict has elevated the risk for buyers and traders who were caught off-guard by the tariff announcement last week, and left crambling to find options to resell or divert shipments while they were still at sea.

The risk was exacerbated amid Chinese buyers ramping up purchases of US commodities when trade tensions eased by the end of June, and the cargoes purchased since then had already sailed.

Two VLCCs — Liberia-flagged Svet and Hong Kong-flagged Landbridge Prosperity — are scheduled to arrive at Chinese ports just before the tariff kicks in, according to cFlow, S&P Global Platts trade flow software.

The 321,075-dwt Svet sailed from the Southwest Passage Lightering area in the US on July 7, and arrived at China’s Qingdao port on Wednesday. The 308,285-dwt Landbridge Prosperity sailed from the Offshore Galveston Lighterage area in the US on June 30, stopped at Covenas for an additional cargo, and is scheduled to arrive at Rizhao port on Thursday.

The UK-flagged Suezmax tanker Energy Triumph loaded at Offshore Galveston Lighterage on July 7, and is also scheduled to arrive at Zhoushan on Thursday, ship tracking data showed. The lighterage areas are used to conduct reverse lightering — loading small cargoes onto larger vessels — as most US export terminals lack large berths for VLCCs.

Landbridge Prosperity was chartered by P66 for the US Gulf Coast-Singapore voyage, with an option for China, for a lump sum of $3.575 million and $4.575 million, respectively, while Energy Triumph was chartered for the US Gulf Coast-Ningbo voyage for $3.425 million by Mercuria, shipping fixtures showed.

These vessels will be the luckier ones. The majority of US crude shipments headed to China in the last few weeks will not make it before September 1, due to the roughly 55-day voyage. Furthermore, they have been tough to identify as their destinations have not been disclosed to avoid detection.

HEIGHTENED TRADING RISK

Singapore-based traders said seaborne shipments will be tough to resell as prompt cargoes have to be heavily discounted due to the last-minute sale, and it may be cheaper for buyers to simply pay the tariff.

Due to the ongoing uncertainty around US-China tensions, traders have also used destination options in fixtures, in case deliveries to China are jeopardized. These ships are chartered at dual rates depending on final delivery, such as Landbridge Prosperity.

In the week-ended August 23, just before China’s tariffs were announced, US crude shipments to Asia were at 8.5 million barrels, nearly half of the total US seaborne crude exports of 18 million barrels for the week, ship tracking data showed.

China’s US crude imports in July were at 1.5 million mt, or 11.2 million barrels, its highest monthly volume in a year, as previously bought cargoes continued to arrive at Chinese ports, customs data showed.

Volumes could remain elevated for August as traders try to accelerate deliveries before the September 1 tariff deadline, but are then expected to collapse again.

Unipec, the trading arm of state-run Sinopec, has a term contract for lifting 3-4 VLCCs of US crude every month, but it was also taken by surprise by the tariff announcement, a trader said.

However, traders with term contracts and international traders lifting US cargoes on an FOB basis typically hedge their risk through various mechanisms like alternative delivery options, the traders added.

US CRUDE IN ASIA

US crude oil exports are already above 3 million b/d on a weekly basis, and should exceed last year’s average by over 1 million b/d by the end of the year, as well as add more than 1 million b/d next year, Ed Morse, global head of commodity research at Citigroup said in a note to clients last week.

The recent offer of US WTI Midland crude in Asia at a premium against Dubai was a testament to how far US oil had penetrated global markets, competing directly against light sweet crude in the region and in the Middle East, he said.

“US crude generally is priced against WTI. This development, with delivery in Singapore or Malaysia, allows Asian buyers to more easily compare US oil to other similar types of oil in the region,” Morse added.

The attraction of US crude is being reinforced by refinery needs for meeting International Maritime Organization 2020 specifications, he said, adding that US supply growth has “an open highway to global markets” challenging Atlantic Basin balances and moving into the Asian market.

Source: Platts

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